Jul
30
Written by:
William Lutz
7/30/2010 10:37 AM
In last week's issue, I wrote an article naming what I believe are the ten most competitive races in Texas (the article is available on the current newsletter page for Lone Star Report subscribers). The first six or so I named were easy – races that obviously would be amongst the most competitive in the state. Beyond that, narrowing down the most competitive 15 or so to 10 is really a judgment call and was very difficult.
Also, I accidentally left the race between Rep. Tim Kleinschmidt (R-Lexington) and Pati Jacobs (D) off my sleeper list. It should have been included on the sleeper list, though as an incumbent, I still think Kleinschmidt will win re-election by a comfortable margin.
Of the races I put on the list, the ones I felt most tentative about were Turner-Zedler, Bolton-Workman, and Herrero-Scott.
The numbers in the Zedler district are the most promising for a Republican (McCain carried it.) But Bill Zedler significantly underperformed the Republican numbers, and Chris Turner’s taking this one seriously. But there’s a different national environment in 2010, and that may be enough to overcome whatever caused Zedler to do four points worse than John McCain.
I wonder if any of the Travis County races will flip prior to redistricting, but if any race is winnable, it’s HD 47. Were it not for the Obama turnout, Donna Keel would have beat Bolton and was a fine candidate. The biggest challenge for Republicans was Keel’s decision not to run again in 2010. That said, it is Travis County, and whatever Bolton’s faults, the Democratic coordinated campaign works here. Obama carried the district easily. In the end, the reason I included the race on the list was because of Workman’s strong second-quarter fundraising numbers. He’s obviously doing the work, and he’ll have to if he wants to win.
The numbers in the Herrero-Scott race from 2008 make it look like the district is not quite winnable for a Republican. It had one of the wider 2008 margins of any race I put on the list (Herrero 53- Scott 47). But the Republican trend in Nueces County justifies it being on the list. In 2006 and 2008, Nueces was counter-cyclical, voting more Republican in a year where Democrats were doing well everywhere else. Republicans control the commissioners court and are running competitive candidates up and down the ballot there. At the same time as the Herrero-Scott race, there will be a competitive county judge race with former Corpus Christi Mayor Loyd Neil (R) seeking re-election as Nueces County judge. Inclusion of the Scott race on my list is a hat-tip to what Republicans have accomplished in Nueces county, but as always, challenging an incumbent is never easy. Interesting side note about that district: McCain carried it by two points but other down-ballot Democrats tended to win the district by about seven to 10 points. Obama really did not play will in Nueces County.
Another race that was marginal for the Top 10 list was the Kent-Carter race in Dallas, but most local Republicans truly believe Carter is running a competitive campaign, and it’s a truly open question how much of a special case 2008 was. I have some political pundits tell me that this election turnout-wise will be slightly higher than 2006, except slanted a bit more toward Republicans.
Of the sleeper races, one could make a case that several of them could merit inclusion on the list. The one I’m paying the most attention to is the contest between Rep. Joe Moody (D-El Paso) and Dee Margo. Obviously, Margo can raise money. And the district was represented for years by Rep. Pat Heggerty (R). But Obama carried the district by eight points, Moody by six, which is why I left it off the list. That said, Obama basically did a saturation media buy in El Paso in 2008, because the El Paso media market serves Las Cruces, New Mexico – the second-largest city in the state. Moody benefited from presidential expenditures really directed at Las Cruces. That factor won’t be present in 2010, but six points is still a big margin to overcome.
I should have added the Kleinschmidt-Jacobs race to my sleeper list. I don’t think it will be competitive in the end. The Democrats are spending money on the district. But Kleinschmidt almost beat popular incumbent Robby Cook in 2006. This district – as currently drawn – has gone Republican and is unlikely to go back. But a first-term incumbent in a district where Democrats are spending money appropriately remains at least on the radar screen. It’s lack of inclusion was an oversight on my part.