1/10/2011 12:34 PM
Comptroller Susan Combs released a $72.2 billion revenue estimate this morning. That is down 2.9 percent from the year prior. Anemic reveue growth combined with the likelihood the state will finish in a deficit combined to produce a lower revenue estimate than last year. "The recent recession has had its impact on the state revenue outlook as major revenue sources such as the sales tax generated less money in the last couple of years," Combs said. "While we have turned the corner to an economic recovery, the revenue estimate I'm releasing today is for moderate growth."
Click here to view the full revenue estimate.
Combs estimates that total state general revenue in fiscal years 2012-12 will equal $77.3 billion, with $800 million constitutionally reserved for the Rainy Day Fund (mostly oil and gas taxes), leaving $76.5 billion available for spending. But Combs estimates finishing Fiscal Year 2011 with a $4.3 billion deficit, creating the $72.2 billion number released today. The deficit projections assumes the spending cuts already made in fiscal year 2010, but does not include spending cuts that the governor, lieutenant governor, and speaker ordered state agencies to make in 2011. Those cuts do not become official until the Legislature passes a bill rescinding the appropriation (or the fiscal year ends without the money being spent.) In other words, the $4.3 billion number is the appropriation for Fiscal Year 2011 minus expected revenue for the year.
Combs estimates that sales tax collections during the 2012-13 will exceed the 2010-11 number by eight percent. She predicted a 9.5 percent increase in the franchise tax and a 10.6 percent increase in oil production taxes but a 4.1 percent decrease in oil production taxes. Combs predicts economic growth at 2.8 and 3.4 percent after adjusting for inflation.